Malcolm Gladwell, Adam Price and "Why Not?"

This week I was discussing on twitter the limitations to Malcolm Gladwell's ideas (as much as discussion can take place in that medium anyway). I enjoy Gladwell's writing, it has a laconic wit and a comforting almost home cooking feel tone to it. It's relaxed enough to enjoy it, understand the idea but not feel it is being sledgehammered into your skull.

Gladwell's 'The Tipping Point' is his best idea, if not book (I preferred Blink as a book). Gladwell's central idea, one where "epidemics behave in a very unusual and counterintuitive way" is something Plaid Cymru need to think about as we enter the business end of these elections. As Gladwell says;

"As human beings, we always expect everyday change to happen slowly and steadily, and for there to be some relationship between cause and effect. And when there isn't -- when crime drops dramatically in New York for no apparent reason, or when a movie made on a shoestring budget ends up making hundreds of millions of dollars -- we're surprised. I'm saying, don't be surprised"

You might think with the polls how they are, the media pointing in a different direction and hangover of the most British General Election in living memory we as a party face huge challenges. We do of course, but it's important to refer back to tipping points.

Adam Price has probably read Gladwell (less so this Blog I am sure), however I thought a comment in made in that excellent research reminded me of a tipping point.

There may be many plausible reasons for opposing Welsh independence, but the risk of impoverishment can no longer credibly be said the strongest.

Clearly the time the Welsh electorate engages with "Why not?" rather than "How can we/Why?" on Welsh independence maybe our very own national tipping point.

The same can go for these elections. I am at pains to give it to you straight, the polls must have some grain of truth in them nationally. I don't foresee us breaking the 20 seats barrier (an essential strategic goal by 2020 IMHO) this time. However, remember that "epidemics behave in a very unusual and counterintuitive way".

Might we see us remain on the same number of AMs but with new 'tipping point' victories. As someone involved in the Caerphilly campaign, believe me that it's neck and neck and that every time Ron Davies goes out and meets voters we are winning new and untapped support - built on a strong base of the Council. Even the most one-eyed Labour hack might hesitate when asked "Who would make a better AM for Caerphilly - Cuthbert or Davies?"

Might there be a seat we don't win but gain 500, 1000 or 2000 votes? A seat that in a decade becomes the next Caerphilly or in 2012 brings far more councillors? To borrow this metaphor, might these flotillas of Councillors in the long run deliver the breaking of the glass ceiling nationally?

Change is rarely linear and is often hidden under something as blunt as 'national election story'.