No doubt many will hardly feel any sympathy, but political campaigners have had a pretty tough year. Tough in terms of the General election, referendum, Welsh Election being a huge drain on resources of every kind.
Like any organisation such as businesses, it is difficult to assess things strategically in the medium and long term when the short term is so hectic and challenging.
The one thing that struck me from last year's Westminster general election was that Plaid were losing deposits, particularly the two lost in Newport. In my own seat in Torfaen we didn't but we wasn't far off. This is not a criticism to say that as a party of Wales we should not be losing any deposits in national elections.
To return to the strategic planning point, we have as a party been all hands to the pump on 'election' footing for pretty much 18 months. With a week to go and with one massive push ahead, I can safely say I am looking forward to a rest (and bear in mind many more people have done far more than me!). Given this, it is difficult to plan for things, notice things and develop things outside of that electioneering.
Plaid are a very professional party it must be said so planning is carried out well. But I hope we as a party with no national elections until the Euro ones in 2014, focus on things outside of target seats*. To be perfectly frank, we can look at raising the vote by 1000 in our third city of Newport an provide resources to do so.
In the longer term, small gains in places that are not our target seats is massively important to the list vote and given I fully expect 80 AMs in the future (with 40 being regional/proportionally elected), then it's vital.
Don't get it twisted, in places like Torfaen and Newport we work our butt off with limited resources. Some of that work will bear fruit this year and certainly next year, but the next few years, out of the necessary election war footing, we need to firm up and develop Plaid support in new areas. This will take hard work and strategic support - some Plaid possess in abundance.
*Before anyone pipes up - I am a candidate in 2012, it's going to be the most important one ever for me, but you catch my drift. In fact, winning council seats is an absolute necessity to grow the Plaid vote (it's pretty true that my personal vote is bigger than the Plaid vote - but I am starting to get the Plaid vote to solidify and then catch up). This is the template for growth surely.
Saturday, 30 April 2011
Friday, 29 April 2011
Carwyn dances to an altogether darker tune
Social security, benefits and most economic levers are not devolved. Labour could win 60 seats next week and none of these things will alter. It is a cowardice that a party that have stood solely on being against the Tories lack the cahones to take control of areas that will remain in the hands of those same Tory ogres.
And to be fair, I would happily prefer Labour AMs to be in charge of those policies rather than Tory (or indeed Labour) MPs. MPs in a Westminster context are beholden to swing seats in commuter towns in England, a rabid media that places scandal, pseudo racism and right wing nastiness at it's heart and the mythical 'middle England'.
All this is irrelevant though. Peter Hain's anonymous spokesperson made it crystal clear - anything not devolved is Ed Milliband's and MPs territory. Carwyn Jones is a siloed HR manager. So let's be clear what Labour's policy is in non-devolved areas and who is leading the debate on something like welfare reform.
Blue Labour.
Carwyn Jones could barricade himself to the IPPR office in protest, but the fact is that these policies are outside his payroll. It is why Peter Hain can vote for tuition fees, prescription charges etc for English voters, but then champion opposing them in Wales. It's why Carwyn Jones presents himself as the 'alternative' to the Browne report on tuition fees...commissioned by...Labour in Westminster.
Blue Labour is Labour in Westminster. It is the direction of thinking for all non-devolved areas. Carwyn Jones could be more left wing than Welsh Ramblings and this would not change - Heir to Blair, Heir to Blair, PFI, PFI.
Good post here by Ramblings.
And to be fair, I would happily prefer Labour AMs to be in charge of those policies rather than Tory (or indeed Labour) MPs. MPs in a Westminster context are beholden to swing seats in commuter towns in England, a rabid media that places scandal, pseudo racism and right wing nastiness at it's heart and the mythical 'middle England'.
All this is irrelevant though. Peter Hain's anonymous spokesperson made it crystal clear - anything not devolved is Ed Milliband's and MPs territory. Carwyn Jones is a siloed HR manager. So let's be clear what Labour's policy is in non-devolved areas and who is leading the debate on something like welfare reform.
Blue Labour.
Carwyn Jones could barricade himself to the IPPR office in protest, but the fact is that these policies are outside his payroll. It is why Peter Hain can vote for tuition fees, prescription charges etc for English voters, but then champion opposing them in Wales. It's why Carwyn Jones presents himself as the 'alternative' to the Browne report on tuition fees...commissioned by...Labour in Westminster.
Blue Labour is Labour in Westminster. It is the direction of thinking for all non-devolved areas. Carwyn Jones could be more left wing than Welsh Ramblings and this would not change - Heir to Blair, Heir to Blair, PFI, PFI.
Good post here by Ramblings.
Thursday, 28 April 2011
A flat campaign with a few bumps ahead
A number of respected commentators have put forward a sense of this campaign being a rather flat one. I recommend Gareth's post too.
I concur to a certain degree. Nationally the story, the debate that aroused passion, was the referendum on March 3rd. It was always going to be the context maker for this campaign, albeit perhaps not in a way I expected at the time. Had that referendum had been lost, you would have got all hell breaking lose and as a spectator a much more interesting campaign. One thing it truly immersed me in as Plaid member was the dual purpose to being a Plaid member - the goals as a party and the national goals for Wales.
Ultimately the national story was the referendum. I do wonder whether the dynamic of the campaign would have been different if the two votes were held on the same day?
Privately I remarked that Labour were using the referendum far more agressively as an election kick off. It would be crass to suggest, without empirical evidence, that this gave Labour a running start over the other parties. But Labour clearly gave their main theme (Vote Labour, the Tory are shits and will cut everythingand by the way forget we was going to cut the same anyway) a test drive.
It was telling that Carwyn Jones was at pains to list things in Labour's manifesto that could not have been delivered under the previous system. But let's be honest here, Carwyn Jones is a far calmer presence than Rhodri Morgan in the media and has a party back feeling comfortable in it's own skin (many a 40+ Labour activist cut their political teeth opposing the Tories). Carwyn does autopilot very well thank you, hence why Labour is so keen to amble along.
Nationally also I think that the sun still has not set on the General election. Given the game changing nature of the last UK election (the first one since 1997 where the result was in doubt in the midst of massive economic upheaval), these arguments have been done to death - by the politicians, the media and let's be honest a pretty weary electorate.
It has been a challenge for Plaid, despite having genuinely fresh ideas, to shift that focus on Tory cuts, AV, Lib Dem betrayal and the luxury of opposition but equal media time for the UK Labour Party.
Added to this in terms of it being flat - the lib dems have been all but wiped out as potential challengers. In 2007 they were live wire opponents in Newport East, Labour was genuinely worried in such seats. Realistically the Lib Dems have been forgotten about in terms of winning new seats, merely holding on. Ditto the Tories, who I think privately admit staying still is about right.
This is not me talking down Plaid's chances, but merely why the campaign has failed to spark. To be perfectly honest, Labour could get the same 26 seats an Ed Milliband wouldn't worry, in Scotland they are shitting a brick.
HOWEVER
That is the national narrative, one that simply is only a partial analysis. Seats that are in danger of changing hands are often beholden to local factors and about street by street campaigning. In Caerphilly this has been evident - the Plaid vote is absolutely rock solid and growing in our strong areas, built on continual growth at local election level (Plaid have double the county councillors than Labour in Caerphilly). Ron Davies has the profile to reach out to Labour voters and his personal vote alike. Even voices who question if they can vote for Plaid are often put at ease when they realise that the only way to have Ron Davies as your AM is to vote for the party he is standing for.
I digress and don't like to talk up or down chances, as it's hard even embedded in a campaign to really get a sense. But ultimately my point was that national polls can never tell the tale (I think Labour have realised this in terms of taking anything further than the obvious targets) of the local seats.
I concur to a certain degree. Nationally the story, the debate that aroused passion, was the referendum on March 3rd. It was always going to be the context maker for this campaign, albeit perhaps not in a way I expected at the time. Had that referendum had been lost, you would have got all hell breaking lose and as a spectator a much more interesting campaign. One thing it truly immersed me in as Plaid member was the dual purpose to being a Plaid member - the goals as a party and the national goals for Wales.
Ultimately the national story was the referendum. I do wonder whether the dynamic of the campaign would have been different if the two votes were held on the same day?
Privately I remarked that Labour were using the referendum far more agressively as an election kick off. It would be crass to suggest, without empirical evidence, that this gave Labour a running start over the other parties. But Labour clearly gave their main theme (Vote Labour, the Tory are shits and will cut everything
It was telling that Carwyn Jones was at pains to list things in Labour's manifesto that could not have been delivered under the previous system. But let's be honest here, Carwyn Jones is a far calmer presence than Rhodri Morgan in the media and has a party back feeling comfortable in it's own skin (many a 40+ Labour activist cut their political teeth opposing the Tories). Carwyn does autopilot very well thank you, hence why Labour is so keen to amble along.
Nationally also I think that the sun still has not set on the General election. Given the game changing nature of the last UK election (the first one since 1997 where the result was in doubt in the midst of massive economic upheaval), these arguments have been done to death - by the politicians, the media and let's be honest a pretty weary electorate.
It has been a challenge for Plaid, despite having genuinely fresh ideas, to shift that focus on Tory cuts, AV, Lib Dem betrayal and the luxury of opposition but equal media time for the UK Labour Party.
Added to this in terms of it being flat - the lib dems have been all but wiped out as potential challengers. In 2007 they were live wire opponents in Newport East, Labour was genuinely worried in such seats. Realistically the Lib Dems have been forgotten about in terms of winning new seats, merely holding on. Ditto the Tories, who I think privately admit staying still is about right.
This is not me talking down Plaid's chances, but merely why the campaign has failed to spark. To be perfectly honest, Labour could get the same 26 seats an Ed Milliband wouldn't worry, in Scotland they are shitting a brick.
HOWEVER
That is the national narrative, one that simply is only a partial analysis. Seats that are in danger of changing hands are often beholden to local factors and about street by street campaigning. In Caerphilly this has been evident - the Plaid vote is absolutely rock solid and growing in our strong areas, built on continual growth at local election level (Plaid have double the county councillors than Labour in Caerphilly). Ron Davies has the profile to reach out to Labour voters and his personal vote alike. Even voices who question if they can vote for Plaid are often put at ease when they realise that the only way to have Ron Davies as your AM is to vote for the party he is standing for.
I digress and don't like to talk up or down chances, as it's hard even embedded in a campaign to really get a sense. But ultimately my point was that national polls can never tell the tale (I think Labour have realised this in terms of taking anything further than the obvious targets) of the local seats.
Monday, 25 April 2011
Independents (but add us all together if we lose)
I was struck by a letter from an independent candidate for the recent Pontypool by-election in this week's Free Press. In it he mused on the fact that the combined independent's vote was in excess of Labour and whether AV would be worthwhile for voters to show 'they wanted an independent' Councillor.
We are talking in what ifs to a certain degree, but this left me confused as to the reason for an independent candidate. My understanding, something a certain brand of independent won't ever deviate from, is that they are their own people and stand alone as candidates - "Free from party whip", "only serving Torfaen" etc.
If we are to accept that (and I am sure they probably believe what they are saying, as do some voters) then you cannot have it both ways. A vote for an independent is a vote for that individual's qualities and personality, they are to be treated in isolation.
Otherwise, and it's a rather dense binary often presented by independents, you can add up all the 'party slave' votes together and say 'people voted for someone of a party councillor'. Of course you can't!
Given the very personal nature of the attacks from many independents in Torfaen, I am sure they will all scream blue murder if anyone lumped them in together. I certainly won't do that, which is why I think the independent candidate who came second in the Pontypool by-election is trying to have his cake and eat it.
*edit*
I didn't add that this is in a multi independent environment. My understanding was that in Torfaen this time there is only one independent candidate, so I would be confident in saying that this candidate may well hoover up votes that she would not have got if other independents stood.
We are talking in what ifs to a certain degree, but this left me confused as to the reason for an independent candidate. My understanding, something a certain brand of independent won't ever deviate from, is that they are their own people and stand alone as candidates - "Free from party whip", "only serving Torfaen" etc.
If we are to accept that (and I am sure they probably believe what they are saying, as do some voters) then you cannot have it both ways. A vote for an independent is a vote for that individual's qualities and personality, they are to be treated in isolation.
Otherwise, and it's a rather dense binary often presented by independents, you can add up all the 'party slave' votes together and say 'people voted for someone of a party councillor'. Of course you can't!
Given the very personal nature of the attacks from many independents in Torfaen, I am sure they will all scream blue murder if anyone lumped them in together. I certainly won't do that, which is why I think the independent candidate who came second in the Pontypool by-election is trying to have his cake and eat it.
*edit*
I didn't add that this is in a multi independent environment. My understanding was that in Torfaen this time there is only one independent candidate, so I would be confident in saying that this candidate may well hoover up votes that she would not have got if other independents stood.
What I learned from Martin Shipton's book...
Having just finished Martin Shipton's "Poor Man's Parliament" I wanted to share a 'Five things I have learned...' in a few blog posts;
The LCO System's creators need to repent
During the election campaign you could not find a politician or the political elite who wouldn't happily rubbish the LCO system. But I am yet to see anyone's metaphorical head on a stick for it's creation, support and failure. Having such a big call in the hands of a part of one party is simply not acceptable for matters of such importance.
We have to immediately have a cross party report on what does and does need another referendum and take a far more consensual approach. We need this agreed by all parties, at least in terms of what needs a referendum if they were in power. I am willing to take the ConDems at their word about devolving further powers, we cannot have a repeat of the LCO system.
Party's need to federalise or devolution will always be rubbish
I was angry at times at all our politicians during reading Shipton's book. I was angry because it gave the distinct impression (and at times reality) that the Assembly was a kangaroo court of jokers. The humiliation the AMs had to endure, often from within their own party's MPs just added to that.
Labour, Lib Dems and the Tories would be better as parties and as potential government's if they federalised. This would allow for differences to be seen as the democratic will of the federalised part, not as a binary opposition. I was struck that on Ed Milliband's visit to Wales last week he offered Carwyn Jones as an alternative to higher tuition fees, prescription charges and what not. But does he then mean an alternative to English Labour, who introduced and still have those policies for England?
Click here to see Alex Salmond skewer Peter Hain on this matter. 24mins in.
And for the record, I don't take the view that if a Westminster Government comes forward with a different policy that it's automatically bad compared to a WG policy. Too many in Welsh politics equate criticising Welsh Government policy with criticising devolution.
All parties, including Plaid, would begin to accept policy differences within parties, much like we have to accept policy differences between devolved Governments.
However, Martin Shipton's book does highlight how the Assembly was demeaned for far too long in it's attempt to forge a different path.
Credit must go to the Lib Dems, even if it took a crisis to get some honesty. Of course the Lib Dems a praying they can make this a 'Welsh election about Welsh issues' in 2011, but at least they have been saying what all parties should be saying - this election is about electing a Welsh Government to rule over devolved areas.
Plaid must be far more self confident
Honestly, in my time campaigning for Plaid in one of our weakest seats, I feel we have an offering that attracts people. Of course, I have seen people recoil at Plaid, the Welsh language and the Welsh Assembly (which tellingly they see as one and the same) on the doorstep, however we are never going to win them all. However, we do have the ideas to win in new areas. Going through Shipton's book, I sense a nervousness in Plaid, particularly when the proverbial hits the fan.
My peers in Plaid, the ones under 40, need to be strong in the face of storms and dare I say but we have to campaign beyond elections and for radical things that will involve being the sole party campaigning for it. This might be facing down some of our policies that cannot be sacred cows, it might be far more anti-establishment on things like the BBC and it might be not panicking when we get siren voices accusing us of things.
A confident party is one of that can allow criticism from others to bounce of it.
The LCO System's creators need to repent
During the election campaign you could not find a politician or the political elite who wouldn't happily rubbish the LCO system. But I am yet to see anyone's metaphorical head on a stick for it's creation, support and failure. Having such a big call in the hands of a part of one party is simply not acceptable for matters of such importance.
We have to immediately have a cross party report on what does and does need another referendum and take a far more consensual approach. We need this agreed by all parties, at least in terms of what needs a referendum if they were in power. I am willing to take the ConDems at their word about devolving further powers, we cannot have a repeat of the LCO system.
Party's need to federalise or devolution will always be rubbish
I was angry at times at all our politicians during reading Shipton's book. I was angry because it gave the distinct impression (and at times reality) that the Assembly was a kangaroo court of jokers. The humiliation the AMs had to endure, often from within their own party's MPs just added to that.
Labour, Lib Dems and the Tories would be better as parties and as potential government's if they federalised. This would allow for differences to be seen as the democratic will of the federalised part, not as a binary opposition. I was struck that on Ed Milliband's visit to Wales last week he offered Carwyn Jones as an alternative to higher tuition fees, prescription charges and what not. But does he then mean an alternative to English Labour, who introduced and still have those policies for England?
Click here to see Alex Salmond skewer Peter Hain on this matter. 24mins in.
And for the record, I don't take the view that if a Westminster Government comes forward with a different policy that it's automatically bad compared to a WG policy. Too many in Welsh politics equate criticising Welsh Government policy with criticising devolution.
All parties, including Plaid, would begin to accept policy differences within parties, much like we have to accept policy differences between devolved Governments.
However, Martin Shipton's book does highlight how the Assembly was demeaned for far too long in it's attempt to forge a different path.
Credit must go to the Lib Dems, even if it took a crisis to get some honesty. Of course the Lib Dems a praying they can make this a 'Welsh election about Welsh issues' in 2011, but at least they have been saying what all parties should be saying - this election is about electing a Welsh Government to rule over devolved areas.
Plaid must be far more self confident
Honestly, in my time campaigning for Plaid in one of our weakest seats, I feel we have an offering that attracts people. Of course, I have seen people recoil at Plaid, the Welsh language and the Welsh Assembly (which tellingly they see as one and the same) on the doorstep, however we are never going to win them all. However, we do have the ideas to win in new areas. Going through Shipton's book, I sense a nervousness in Plaid, particularly when the proverbial hits the fan.
My peers in Plaid, the ones under 40, need to be strong in the face of storms and dare I say but we have to campaign beyond elections and for radical things that will involve being the sole party campaigning for it. This might be facing down some of our policies that cannot be sacred cows, it might be far more anti-establishment on things like the BBC and it might be not panicking when we get siren voices accusing us of things.
A confident party is one of that can allow criticism from others to bounce of it.
Friday, 22 April 2011
AV a look at these
Two articles on AV that you should read;
Adam Higgitt writes with a depth that has been so lacking from the debate around AV. I don't agree with all of it, however it is written with purpose and no shortage of strong arguments.
Johann Hari makes an excellent case for AV (although not really AV but reform in general). The one bad argument is the 'BNP support it, therefore it is bad' - which is pretty flimsy an argument.
Adam Higgitt writes with a depth that has been so lacking from the debate around AV. I don't agree with all of it, however it is written with purpose and no shortage of strong arguments.
Johann Hari makes an excellent case for AV (although not really AV but reform in general). The one bad argument is the 'BNP support it, therefore it is bad' - which is pretty flimsy an argument.
Malcolm Gladwell, Adam Price and "Why Not?"
This week I was discussing on twitter the limitations to Malcolm Gladwell's ideas (as much as discussion can take place in that medium anyway). I enjoy Gladwell's writing, it has a laconic wit and a comforting almost home cooking feel tone to it. It's relaxed enough to enjoy it, understand the idea but not feel it is being sledgehammered into your skull.
Gladwell's 'The Tipping Point' is his best idea, if not book (I preferred Blink as a book). Gladwell's central idea, one where "epidemics behave in a very unusual and counterintuitive way" is something Plaid Cymru need to think about as we enter the business end of these elections. As Gladwell says;
You might think with the polls how they are, the media pointing in a different direction and hangover of the most British General Election in living memory we as a party face huge challenges. We do of course, but it's important to refer back to tipping points.
Adam Price has probably read Gladwell (less so this Blog I am sure), however I thought a comment in made in that excellent research reminded me of a tipping point.
Clearly the time the Welsh electorate engages with "Why not?" rather than "How can we/Why?" on Welsh independence maybe our very own national tipping point.
The same can go for these elections. I am at pains to give it to you straight, the polls must have some grain of truth in them nationally. I don't foresee us breaking the 20 seats barrier (an essential strategic goal by 2020 IMHO) this time. However, remember that "epidemics behave in a very unusual and counterintuitive way".
Might we see us remain on the same number of AMs but with new 'tipping point' victories. As someone involved in the Caerphilly campaign, believe me that it's neck and neck and that every time Ron Davies goes out and meets voters we are winning new and untapped support - built on a strong base of the Council. Even the most one-eyed Labour hack might hesitate when asked "Who would make a better AM for Caerphilly - Cuthbert or Davies?"
Might there be a seat we don't win but gain 500, 1000 or 2000 votes? A seat that in a decade becomes the next Caerphilly or in 2012 brings far more councillors? To borrow this metaphor, might these flotillas of Councillors in the long run deliver the breaking of the glass ceiling nationally?
Change is rarely linear and is often hidden under something as blunt as 'national election story'.
Gladwell's 'The Tipping Point' is his best idea, if not book (I preferred Blink as a book). Gladwell's central idea, one where "epidemics behave in a very unusual and counterintuitive way" is something Plaid Cymru need to think about as we enter the business end of these elections. As Gladwell says;
"As human beings, we always expect everyday change to happen slowly and steadily, and for there to be some relationship between cause and effect. And when there isn't -- when crime drops dramatically in New York for no apparent reason, or when a movie made on a shoestring budget ends up making hundreds of millions of dollars -- we're surprised. I'm saying, don't be surprised"
You might think with the polls how they are, the media pointing in a different direction and hangover of the most British General Election in living memory we as a party face huge challenges. We do of course, but it's important to refer back to tipping points.
Adam Price has probably read Gladwell (less so this Blog I am sure), however I thought a comment in made in that excellent research reminded me of a tipping point.
There may be many plausible reasons for opposing Welsh independence, but the risk of impoverishment can no longer credibly be said the strongest.
Clearly the time the Welsh electorate engages with "Why not?" rather than "How can we/Why?" on Welsh independence maybe our very own national tipping point.
The same can go for these elections. I am at pains to give it to you straight, the polls must have some grain of truth in them nationally. I don't foresee us breaking the 20 seats barrier (an essential strategic goal by 2020 IMHO) this time. However, remember that "epidemics behave in a very unusual and counterintuitive way".
Might we see us remain on the same number of AMs but with new 'tipping point' victories. As someone involved in the Caerphilly campaign, believe me that it's neck and neck and that every time Ron Davies goes out and meets voters we are winning new and untapped support - built on a strong base of the Council. Even the most one-eyed Labour hack might hesitate when asked "Who would make a better AM for Caerphilly - Cuthbert or Davies?"
Might there be a seat we don't win but gain 500, 1000 or 2000 votes? A seat that in a decade becomes the next Caerphilly or in 2012 brings far more councillors? To borrow this metaphor, might these flotillas of Councillors in the long run deliver the breaking of the glass ceiling nationally?
Change is rarely linear and is often hidden under something as blunt as 'national election story'.
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